The Bull Case for Xpeng

20 min read1 day ago

Why Xpeng stock ($XPEV) can hit US$100 (and beyond?) by end-2026

INTRODUCTION

Xpeng is a Chinese Electric Vehicle (EV) automaker headed by CEO He Xiaopeng, with dual listings in the USA ($XPEV) and Hong Kong (9868). Its current price is around US$19.40 (HK 75.00) with a market capitalization of around US$18 billion.

But is it really just an automaker? I’d argue Xpeng is in fact a software company providing full-stack AI mobility solutions, and seems hugely underestimated by analysts and markets alike.

Here’s why Xpeng could see exponential growth in the coming years, perhaps hitting US$100 by end-2026 (or ~US$100 billion market cap, about fivefold from its current value), using a simple SWOT analysis.

STRENGTHS — COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

Product & Design: Xpeng’s cars have always had aesthetics in mind, starting with their 2020 hit P7 which is still considered by many to be most beautiful car. With constant innovation and a focus on consumer tastes and needs, their latest P7+ and sub-brand MONA M03 sedans’ stylish looks, best-in-class comfort, and large space are now huge bestsellers in China.
Affordability: Starting in 2024, Xpeng tweaked its price strategy to make its cars more affordable while retaining many luxury features. Previously, they competed in the RMB 200–250,000 range (against Nio, Li Auto, Huawei AITO, Tesla, Xiaomi), but have since moved down to the RMB 100–200,000 range (against BYD). For example, the MONA M03 starts at RMB 119,800 and the P7+ starts at RMB 186,800.
Cutting-edge Technology & Features: Outstanding Xpeng tech includes an in-house powertrain (consisting of battery, motor, and electrical architecture) integrated with the vehicle chassis and autonomous driving (AD) capabilities and smart features. For example, the P7+ uses Nappa leather on all seats with heating, ventilation, and massage functions as standard.
Strong Leadership Team: Credit must go to CEO Xiaopeng and Wang Fengying, a automaker veteran from Great Wall Motors who joined Xpeng as President in January 2023. At that low point in Xpeng’s history, both of them were willing to accept feedback for a total organisational revamp. Together, they overhauled the management team, rooted out corruption, eradicated departmental inefficiencies, and shifted to a more user-centric focus. Furthermore, CEO Xiaopeng remains humble and fully committed to building the company to reach greater heights.
Strong Supply Chain, Marketing & Branding Management: Gone are the days when Xpeng suffered from a myraid of supply chain, marketing, and pricing problems, such as a botched G9 SUV launch in 2022 with dozens of confusing configurations and a initial G6 production ramp hiccup in end 2023. Xpeng’s product, marketing, and supply chain teams are all working harmoniously to swiftly ramp up production and deliver blockbuster hits one after another. CEO Xiaopeng has also taken advice from Lei Jun, his friend and CEO of Xiaomi, to be more active on social media and connect more with his customers, online or offline.

WEAKNESSES

Low Brand Strength & Perception: Xpeng’s brand strength is still low compared to Tesla, BYD, Huawei, and Xiaomi. However, it is slowly but surely growing its reputation in China and overseas, with strong sales on both fronts. In addition, Xpeng is slowly penetrating small cities in China (tier 4 and 5 cities) with an expanding stores, dealerships, and charging infrastructure.
Intense Industry Competition & Price Wars Creating Margin Erosion: Might not necessarily be a weakness, more like a double edged sword or blessing in disguise even, since competition breeds innovation and efficiency (see Deepseek). Moreover, Xpeng has several cost control advantages, such as one of the world’s largest Gigapresses (for car body stamping) and joint raw materials purchases with partner Volkswagen.

OPPORTUNITIES — STRONG TECH LEADERSHIP

In addition, Xpeng has a lot of exciting products in the works, many of which are AI-related and can be a moonshot by itself.

1. Strong 2025 Pipeline

First is Xpeng’s bread and butter: EV cars. Here is an estimated timeline of important events/product launches/deliveries for 2025 and 2026, subject to change:

2025

=== Q1 ===
1Q: Xpeng G6 Facelift (est. 160–190,000 RMB).
Late March: 4Q 2024 Earnings Release.
=== Q2 ===
May: AI Turing Chip Launch & Mass Production.
May: Mid to High Level Quasi-L3 Unmanned Driving Capabilities (V6).
May: MONA M03 MAX Launch.
Late May: Xpeng 1Q 2025 Results.
2Q: Xpeng G9 Facelift (est. 230–290,000 RMB).
2Q: Xpeng G7 (SUV version of P7+) Launch (est. 190–230,000 RMB).
=== Q3 ===
Mid to Late August: Xpeng 2Q 2025 Results.
3Q: Xpeng P9/E29 (P7 Upgrade Coupe + Muscle Car) Launch.
3Q: Xpeng P7 Facelift.
3Q/4Q: MONA G03 SUV Launch (~130,000 RMB).
3Q/4Q: Iron Robot Trial Commercial Use (talk and move like humans).
3Q/4Q: Xpeng G5 Compact SUV Launch.
=== Q4 ===
October: Xpeng G01 (EREV SUV) Launch (G9 style, est. 200–350,000 RMB, 5C fast charging, 1,400km range (430km battery range).
Mid to Late November: Xpeng 3Q 2025 Results.
Late November: Xpeng Tech Day.
4Q: Xpeng X9 Facelift.
4Q: Xpeng H01 Massive SUV Launch (7-Seater).
4Q: XNGP (AD) Full Level 3 Autonomy. XNGP Reach Robotaxi Global Standards.

2026

1H: First Joint VW Model Launch.
1H: Xpeng AeroHT Land Aircraft Carrier Delivery.
Turing AI Intelligent Driving System Global Launch.
Xpeng VW Cooperation Model Launch.
Robotaxi Joint Partnership Launch.
MONA Compact SUV Launch.

My Take: Target deliveries set by CEO Xiaopeng for 2025 is 380 — 400,000. However looking at their strong pipeline, especially if their L3 autonomous driving takes off in 2H 2025 (see next point), I am forecasting 450 — 500,000 deliveries for this year, with a possibility of attaining 800,000+ EV deliveries for 2026 (See Summary at bottom).

2. Autonomous Driving & Self Driving Cars

Next autonomous driving (AD). This is now the main battleground for all EV makers, with BYD recently announcing their no-holds-barred, deep-dive in. For the uninitiated, AD has five levels:

Level 1: Driver Assistance
Level 2: Partial Driving Automation (Most EV makers are here; some tout themselves as L2.9 for marketing purposes)
Level 3: Conditional Driving Automation (Human still required)
Level 4: High Driving Automation (Human override optional)
Level 5: Full Driving Automation (Human not required; Robocar status)

Level 5 autonomous driving (L5 AD) refers to a completely self-driving car and is one of the holy grails of car makers. Whoever gets there first will see massive uptick in demand for their cars or L4 AD tech (for licensing out) in various countries. The applications are endless, from robotaxis, car rentals, and self-driving trucks.

Xpeng’s latest AD is called the AI Hawkeye Visual Solution using end-to-end Large Language Models (LLM) — basically start to finish AI processing — while its sensory hardware uses a combination of cameras, millimeter-wave radars, and ultrasonic radars (visradar). This is fairly unique to industry standard which uses either LiDAR (laser sensors) or pure-camera vision-only solutions (Tesla).

I believe Xpeng is in the lead for this race, with CEO Xiaopeng declaring they will achieve Quasi-L3 AD by mid-2025 and Full L3 AD by end of 2025, the first in the world for a mainstream passenger car.

Xpeng also recently announced in February 2025 it will launch customised smart driving insurance products with insurance companies, the second carmaker in the world to do so after Jiyue and a major step for AD as Xpeng is offering to “take responsibility for potential smart driving accidents with the help of insurance products to demonstrate its confidence in its abilities as well as to increase the trust of its users”.

Market Size: Statista forecasts the global autonomous vehicle market (including assisted and self driving cars) is poised to grow from US$287B in 2024 to US$2.2T in 2030, at a staggering CAGR of 40.4%.

My Take: This market opportunity is huge. Xpeng’s smart driving, like AI in general, could develop much faster than expected, rapidly boosting their EV sales and giving them a major edge over competitors.

3. Flying Cars

Xpeng AeroHT Land Aircraft Carrier <Xpeng>

Xpeng has several eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) flying cars under development or coming to market under its flying car subsidiary, Xpeng Aeroht.

Land Aircraft Carrier: This unique modular flying car (pictured above) consists of a modular van and flying eVTOL module stored inside. It has begun pre-sales (guide price lower than RMB 2,000,000) and is scheduled to start deliveries in early 2026, with an annual output of 10,000 units.
X2: This autonomous passenger eVTOL multicopter is meant for short sightseeing and travel purposes. It will be sold mostly in China, Australia and the Middle East, and won’t contribute meaningfully to overall business in the near future.
Tilt Rotor Flying Car: Unveiled in the last Tech Day, this eVTOL copter/drone hybrid is designed for intercity commuting. This will be an all-in-one flying car with six seats and hybrid power, with a maximum range of 500 kilometers and top speed of 360 km/h.
eVTOL Flying Car: A true flying car prototype with both driving and flying capability. However, it is still in early development stages, with rumours that the current main challenge is vibration damage to the tucked-in rotor blades when the car is in driving mode.

L-R: X2, Tilt Rotor, eVTOL Flying Car <Xpeng>

Overall, Xpeng Aeroht’s Land Aircraft Carrier is poised to shake up the low-altitude economy in China, the region, and gradually the world. This is due to Xpeng’s ability to mass-produce their flying cars at a lower cost, having attained such expertise with their EV production, and their synergies with their EV car design and technology.

Market Size: The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) forecasts China’s low-altitude economy to grow from RMB 1.5 Trillion (US$2.05B) in 2025 to RMB 3.5 Trillion (US$4.8B) in 2035.

My Take: The US start-up Archer Aviation, the hottest flying stock at the moment, currently has a market cap of US$6.22 billion with no revenue and indicative orders of US$6 billion. Xpeng’s Land Aircraft Carrier has 3,000 firm orders as of January 2025, and at an estimated price of RMB 1,800,000 (US$250,000) translates to forward revenue of RMB 5.5 billion (US$750 million). I am very optimistic about Xpeng’s flying cars division, although its growth potential is nowhere as pronounced as the other businesses. My fair estimate of this business is US$1 billion at the moment, subject to change as new information arises — such as financial performance, overall demand, capacity expansion, new breakthrough flying car models, etc.

4. Humanoid Robots (Iron Robot)

Remember the AI boom taking many by surprise? Jeffery Emanuel, who wrote the famous “Short Case for Nvidia”, also predicted how the nascent humanoid robot industry can rise up rapidly. And Xpeng, with its nascent bipedal, all-purpose Iron Robot, is not yet being considered by any statistics websites for their robot business, which could potentially be worth tens of billions of dollars.

Iron Robots have already been deployed in Xpeng’s factories and stores, and are expected to enter trial commercial use in the second half of 2025, meaning commercial use may come in 2026, including talking and moving like humans. The CEO just stated on 25 February 2025 that he is confident that Xpeng will deploy one of the earliest mass-produced L3 robot companies in China (yes, talk is cheap, but the CEO has consistently walked the talk since start of 2024).

Taking a look at the competition: Figure AI, an up and coming US robotics company, has just been valued at a whopping US$39.2 billion in February 2025, from US$2.6 billion in March 2024, a 15 fold increase. Their latest valuation is more than double Xpeng’s current market cap of US$18 billion, with the their Figure 02 Robot being touted as the world’s first commercially-viable autonomous humanoid robot, and their CEO has also stated they could ship 100,000 humanoid robots over the next four years.

Then we have Unitree, another blooming China-based robotics company, last valued at US$1.1 billion as of September 2024 (likely higher now). However, their current robots are more industry specific and not all-purpose (at the moment): The G1 is more like a commercial robot and their H1 seems more geared for industrial work.

There is also the Tesla Optimus robot and Boston Dynamics Atlas robot, although information is scarce on the former right now. Here are some specs of the different robots where available: in terms of sector type, height, weight (payload), system and number of joints, top speed, battery life, and price:

Xpeng Iron Robot: All Purpose | 1.72 m | 70 kg | Electric 60 Joints (200 degrees of freedom)
Tesla Optimus Gen 2 Robot: All Purpose | 1.73 m | 57 kg (Payload 20 kg) | Electric
Figure 02 Robot: All Purpose | 5"6 (1.68 m) | 70 kg (Payload 20 kg) | Electric | 1.2 m/s | 5 hours
Unitree G1 Robot: Commercial & Retail | 1.3 m | 35 kg | Electric 23 Joints | 2 m/s | 2 hours | US$23,760
Unitree H1 Robot: Customizable | 1.8 m | 47 kg | Electric | 3.3 m/s (max 5 m/s) | US$109,890
Unitree H1–2 Robot: Customizable | 70 kg (Payload 21 kg) | Electric | <2 m/s
UBTech Walker S1 Robot: Industrial | 1.72 m | 76 kg (Payload 15 kg) | Electric
Boston Dynamics Atlas Robot: Commercial & Industrial | 1.5 m | 89 kg | Hydraulic 28 Joints | 2.5 m/s

Market Size: Statista forecasts the robot market is poised to grow from US$50.8B in 2025 to US$73.0B in 2029, at a CAGR of 9.5%.

My Take: Market size seems conservative when considering Figure AI’s valuation. Iron Robot has a decent chance of standing out in this enormous market since many aspects of AI and AD (which Xpeng are strong in) is required for such robots, such as high-level communication, object identification (including dirty or damaged road signs), special situational awareness (safety hazards), pathfinding (not hitting into people or crashing through glass walls). Cost considerations are another underestimated advantage (Xpeng EV mass manufacturing synergies & absence of LiDAR).

5. AI Car Chips (Turing AI Chip)

Xpeng will mass-produce their latest Turing AI chip in mid-2025, where it will set off a chain motion of new product launches, including the MONA M03 Max (High level AD version) and Iron Robot trial commercial use, which are just for starters. This potentially revolutionary chip contains a 40-core processor and supports models with up to 30 billion parameters and delivers the power of three high-performance chips in one. The chip completed over 2,700 functional verifications in just 40 days, achieving 3x the current industry standard (Nvidia’s Orin-X) for development efficiency:

Nvidia’s Drive Orin-X: Single chip computing power of 254 TOPS (Tera operations per second).
Xpeng’s Turing AI Chip: Single chip computing power of 750 TOPS.

Angus McKenzie from Motortrend also speculated that if Xpeng’s Turing Chip lives up to its full potential, it could be a Deepseek moment for the car industry. There is a lot of potential for a high-end chip specifically made for smart cars, and it may even be adopted by other brands, whether for their cars, robots, or robocars.

Market Size: Statista forecasts the global automotive semiconductor market is targeted to grow from US$69.5B in 2024 to US$103.9B in 2029, a CAGR of 8.4%.

My Take: Another wildcard with plenty of scaling power if the Turing Chip (and future iterations) becomes the benchmark for AI car chips worldwide and achieves high adoption by legacy automakers. As a gauge, Nvidia’s Orin-X earned US$1 billion in 2024 from China sales alone.

6. Robocars and Robotaxis

Robocars and robotaxis are the final L5 AD step in autonomous driving, and CEO Xiaopeng has envisioned many different scenarios for them: From transportation to food delivery to mobile convenience stores to F&B to ecommerce deliveries — the possibilities are endless.

Market Size: Similar to AD, Statista forecasts the global autonomous vehicle market is poised to grow from US$287B in 2024 to US$2.2T in 2030, an astonishing CAGR of 40.4%.

My Take: The robocar market probably will not have much impact on Xpeng until they reach L4/L5 AD, which should be at least 3 years away. But it may come sooner than we think, and valuations will come fast and furious if Xpeng can show it is on to something. Either way, a very exciting prospect to look forward to, for it would revolutionize our lives.

7. Global Expansion

First 300 X9 MPV Export Deliveries on 22 Feb 2025 <Xpeng>

Xpeng’s global expansion is accelerating, with high product satisfaction and surging deliveries around the world, with a targeted presence in 60 countries (300 overseas stores) by end of 2025, compared to 30 countries as of end 2024. The CEO also announced the goal of achieving half of its sales from overseas markets by 2033.

The end of the war in Ukraine and normalization of international relations will also unlock big markets in Eastern Europe for China EV makers such as BYD and Xpeng (whose models are more affordable). Russia’s population is 144 million as of 2024 and Ukraine’s population is 37 million as of 2023, and logistics-wise are quick and easy to ship over (probably doable by car carrier trailers too). Note: Eastern Europe has a population of 284 million, which represents a significant market opportunity.

Looking ahead, Xpeng may decide to open a factory in Europe (likely Germany) to service the European market if EU tariffs on China EVs do not go away.

8. Increasing Partnerships & Institutional Investors

Volkswagen, the owner of Lambo and Bentley brands, is paying substantial royalties to Xpeng of few hundred million RMB a year, which will only increase. They will also launch their JV car sometime in 2026, most likely under a royalty-per-car-sold agreement for Xpeng. Lastly, with deepening cooperation, VW may decide to increase their stake in Xpeng (currently ~5%) to achieve stronger investment returns.

China’s stocks are currently seeing a resurgence, led by Deepseek. More positive news could arrive in March, when the Chinese government’s annual Two Sessions Parliamentary Meeting (5 March to ~12 March 2025) may unveil long-awaited fiscal and monetary stimulus, further boosting sentiment and stock prices, with China and global hedge funds rotating heavily into Chinese tech stocks.

More institutional investors will take notice of Xpeng once it hits profitability or unveils a cutting-edge product. For example, the UAE Royal Family attended the Xpeng launch show in Dubai in October 2024 and were dazzled by the models and flying cars, placing an order for the first Land Aircraft Carrier exported to the Middle East. They putting a small investment in Xpeng is not farfetched, and same goes for Saudi Arabia and other big funds or megacap companies around the world.

9. Europe Rescinds China EV Tariffs

China and Europe are still in negotiations to remove the tariffs on China EV imports. If successful, this will greatly boost Xpeng’s profit margins for EU exports and overall profitability as Xpeng has targeted 50% of overall sales to be ex-China by 2027.

10. Others (EREV Systems, Superchargers, Wireless Ground Chargers)

Xpeng’s proprietary Kunpeng Super Electric System will bring an industry-leading Extended Range EV (EREV) system, seamlessly combining a battery EV with a fuel tank for efficiency and 1,400 km of range, removing any range anxiety for users.

Xpeng is also developing the Canghai System, their next-gen AI auto neural system designed for full-scale L4 AD with enhanced safety features, 33x bandwidth, and 12x faster camera image processing, creating a foundation for full-scenario AI-enabled driving experiences.

Xpeng has several other R&D projects in the works, such as ongoing efforts to improve their superchargers’ charge speed (currently at 5C; which means 5x faster than standard chargers), and is even developing a wireless ground charging station (October 2024).

THREATS — POTENTIAL RISKS

1. Competition

There is always intense domestic price competition in the EV sector, especially from Xiaomi, BYD, Huawei, Tesla. Xiaomi, in particular, is receiving high praise and demand for their EVs, and they could move down to the RMB 100–200,000 price range to battle Xpeng. However, this may not ever materialize (definitely not this year anyway), and also very unlikely in 2026 according to their projections. Also to note, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun is a good friend (and investor) of Xpeng CEO Xiaopeng.

Some may be worried that copycats will mimic Xpeng’s popular car models, but it’s not so simple (as results have shown) as Xpeng has built up a decade’s worth of proprietary innovation and expertise in building cutting-edge EVs, as described above. And Xpeng will continue to push forward to keep on the leading edge of EV AI tech.

Overseas competition and price wars may also heat up with BYD and Tesla. However, I feel Xpeng is in the perfect sweet spot of value for money and product, and will continue to attract customers in the entry-level range, sitting between BYD and Tesla’s main brands.

Lastly, competition in autonomous driving is fierce, and there’s a chance another car company unlocks L3 and L4 before Xpeng (although having followed AD trends diligently, I personally don’t feel that way). But if that happens, that will remove Xpeng’s first-mover advantage. However, Xpeng will get there eventually too, and it has other plays like its flying car, AI chip, and robot business. Not to mention it can always catch up with the leader and outshine with its robotaxi/robocar offerings.

2. Loss of Innovation

Xpeng depends heavily on its tech innovation to stand out. Loss of key men, such as then-VP of AD Wu Xinzhou’s departure in August 2023 to Nvidia, may create a big loss of technological edge.

Xpeng is tackling this by recruiting the best and brightest in their fields, and is heavily invested in their tech division, with almost 40% of Xpeng total employees working in R&D.

3. Geopolitical Tensions

US and China tensions may never go away, but that shouldn’t stop investors from seeking the next big thing in either country. Unless a full-blown war occurs (which seems very unlikely under the Trump administration), my take is it will be business as usual for the next four years. Side-note: Other than a one-month invasion of Vietnam in 1979 due to Khmer Rouge upheaval, China has not invaded any other country in their 5,000-year history.

On the corporate side, increasing friction between USA and China may spark another call for delisting of China ADRs from US stock exchanges. If that scenario plays out, that will create volatility in all these companies’ stock prices, but I believe that Xpeng’s HK price will eventually recover and push higher as the company performs well (will have small forex risk though).

USA may also decide to tighten EV chip restrictions on China automakers, but that will not affect Xpeng as it transitions to its own Turing Chip in a few months time. In fact, it may even benefit Xpeng as its other competitors may struggle to find an alternative to Nvidia’s Orin-X chip (or even adopt Xpeng’s Turing chip in the future).

4. Global or Domestic Economic Softness

Any economic slowdown in China or the rest of the world will have a mixed effect on Xpeng. Yes, slower growth means less consumption and less sales. But Xpeng is positioned as an affordable, mass market, smart EV brand. A slowdown could spur more consumers to tighten their belt and go for bang-for-their-buck cars, and Xpeng fits the bill perfectly.

Also, Xpeng’s many moonshot businesses have so much potential for revenue generation, and an economic blip is merely a hiccup in the long run (just look at the iPhone debut in 2007, just before the GFC).

PRODUCTION PLANTS

Info is to the best of my knowledge as of February 2025.

Zhaoqing Factory (Zhaoqing, Guangdong | Annual Capacity: 200–300,000) — MONA M03, P7.
Huangpu Factory (Guangzhou, Guangdong | AC: 200–300,000) — G6, G7, G9, X9, P7+.
Huangpu Factory Extension (Guangzhou, Guangdong | AC: 100,000 | 72,435 sqm | 2H2025) — G01 EREV.
Wuhan Factory (Wuhan, Hubei | AC: 100,000 | 733,000 sqm)— Unknown; Should be Parts & Accessories (Powertrains, perhaps Turing AI Chip?).
AeroHT Factory (Guangzhou Development Zone, Guangdong | AC: 10,000 | 180,000 sqm | 2026) — Land Aircraft Carrier.

UPCOMING 2025 EVENTS TO WATCH FOR

A) Every Tuesday — China Insurance Registration Numbers — Li Auto regularly releases the previous week’s insurance registration numbers for all EV makers every Tuesday, which is close to weekly deliveries and gives a sense of how the company is faring. This number (often leaking out around 11 AM HK on Weibo) is taken very seriously by traders, and can move the stock a lot. To add, I believe Xpeng’s first two weeks’ numbers are often muted due to growing manufacturing for exports.

B) Every 1st of Month — Monthly Delivery Numbers — On the 1st of every month, every EV maker releases their delivery numbers for the previous month (including total exports and local deliveries for Xpeng). Also a big mover for the stock price.

1. Late February Onwards — New Car Launches — As per the above timetable, look out for Xpeng’s new car launches and facelifts. More breakthrough products will generate incredible sales, more brand power, and higher profits for the company.

2. March 5 to March 12 — China Two Sessions Parliamentary Meeting — The government may unveil long-awaited fiscal and monetary stimulus, or other pro-EV measures, further boosting national sentiment, domestic consumption, and car sales further.

3. Mid to Late March — 4Q 2024 Results Release — CEO Xiaopeng already hinted at a breakeven quarter this year, and 4Q 2024 results and 1Q 2025 guidance will set the trend for the rest of the year.

4. May Onwards — Future Results Release — I believe Xpeng’s BE point may come by 2Q 2025 results release (to announce in August 2025). Hitting profitability will trigger a positive feedback loop: The sentiment turns positive, brand image is elevated, generating higher sales as potential customers see it as a mainstay in the auto industry, and attracting more investors as it not only can stand on its own but prosper (a far cry from February 2024 when there were rumblings about its dismal sales and bankruptcy).

5. Late November — Xpeng Tech Day — Look forward to more exciting, breakthrough hardware and software products to be unveiled.

SUMMARY

Xpeng P7+ & Iron Robot at Tech Day 2024 <Xpeng Weibo>

Do you want to own a company that can potentially change the world (or most of it)? Xpeng could turn out to be the Tesla of China, Figure AI of China, Archer Aviation of China, Nvidia of Cars: All rolled into one!

The risk reward looks tremendously positive. And the worst case I can see right now is the stock goes sideways due to inexplicable stagnation in its global EV car business, AND all its other exciting prospects — Autonomous Driving, Flying Cars, AI Chips, Robots, Robocars — fall flat.

BUT, in a good scenario (not necessarily the best case even), if one or two of Xpeng’s businesses blast off into orbit? Let’s revisit each business and my estimated valuations (now and end-2026, with estimated annual sales):

EV Cars (Semi-AD) — Current (L2 AD, 300K annual sales): US$18 Billion | End 2026 (L3 AD, 800K-1M sales + huge/growing orderbook): US$50-60 Billion (Benchmarked against BYD & Li Auto valuation)
Flying Cars — Current (3K orderbook): US$1 Billion | End 2026 (10K sales + 10–30K orderbook, depends on type): US$5–20 Billion (Benchmarked against Archer Aviation valuation)
Robots — Current: Nil | End 2026 (5–10K sales + 10–100K orderbook): US$5–60 Billion (Wildcard, Enormous potential, Benchmarked against Figure AI valuation)
AI Chips — Current: Nil | End 2026 (0–20K orderbook + partnerships): US$2–20 Billion (Big wildcard at the moment)
Robocars (Full-AD) — Current: Nil | End 2026 (10–50K orderbook + partnerships): US$5–40 Billion (Enormous potential, Benchmarked against Waymo & Tesla valuation with big haircut)

If you feel these numbers are ridiculous, bear in mind Tesla’s sky high valuation for its future autonomous driving, robot, and robocar plays, with a peak market cap of US$1.5 trillion in December 2024. Now, Xpeng is valued at a mere 1.8% of Tesla. A major product breakthrough can trigger a sharp bull run for Xpeng, causing short-sellers to stay away, and maybe turning it into a meme stock.

And looking beyond the next two years, I can’t wait to see what other mobility solutions Xpeng or any other EV maker can come up with, including self-driving commercial trucks, e-bikes (like the awesome but scrapped Kawasaki J-Concept), and perhaps even super-drones and planes.

Kawasaki J-Concept Three-Wheeled Motorcycle (Prototype) <Kawasaki>

My ultimate dream is a solar-powered, self-driving eVTOL RV. Imagine being able to spend your whole life travelling, rent-free, almost completely self-sufficient (till they figure out cheap food science or super hydroponics?) — Hopefully the day will come sooner rather than later!

Your solar-powered, self-driving, eVTOL flying RV (Coming in 2032?) <Self-edited from Pixabay>

Disclaimers: All photos and images are labelled with owner’s attribution. I own Xpeng shares, but am not paid or sponsored to write this article.